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Week 11: Bills vs. Browns
at
Monday, Nov. 17th
8:30pm ET
The Bills are looking to stop their free fall as they have now gone from first to worst in the AFC East. They hope the home crowd in a nationally televised prime time affair will help get them fired up to end their three game losing streak. They will be happy to see a team not from their division as the Browns are playing better but have lost two in a row but have renewed hope with Brady Quinn now at the controls of the offense.

FACTS AND FIGURES

Matchup: Buffalo (5-4) vs. Cleveland (3-6)
Place: Ralph Wilson Stadium
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Tony Kornheiser
Spread: Bills by 4
Series: Browns lead 9-5 (Bills 0-1 in playoffs)
Streak: Browns Won 1
Last Meeting: Browns 8-0 in Cleveland (2007)
Browns Offense: Rush (21st); Pass (25th); overall (27th)
Browns Defense: Rush (26th); Pass (21st); overall (t-27th)
Bills Offense: Rush (28th); Pass (12th); overall (24th)
Bills Defense: Rush (15th); Pass (16th); overall (13th)


INJURY UPDATE

The Bills didn't suffer any more injuries against the Patriots on Sunday but still have a rather lengthy list. Three key players remain out as Aaron Schobel, Josh Reed, and Donte Whitner will miss the game. Schobel will miss his fifth straight game with a toe injury while Whitner separated his shoulder in the loss to the Jets two weeks ago. Josh Reed remains out with a strained Achilles and sprained ankle. The team hopes to get Brad Butler back, he has missed three games with a sprained MCL. His backup Jason Whittle is nicked up but was active last week.

The Browns appear very healthy after having 11 days off between games since they last played last Thursday night. FB Lawrence Vickers has been out with an ankle injury and may be another week away. DE Corey Williams is playing through a shoulder injury. SS Sean Jones is expected to be ok after being slowed with a knee injury.
Bills Daily Injury Page

KEY MATCHUPS

RB Marshawn Lynch vs. LB D'Qwell Jackson:
Lynch may be able to get the running game going this week against a sub-par run defense. He will have to watch out for Browns leading tackler Jackson who has 88 stops on the season.

LB Paul Posluszny vs. RB Jamal Lewis:
It has been a down year for Lewis who may be slowing down a step but is still dangerous. Posluszny will need to keep him bottled up before he gets his big motor running downhill.

C Duke Preston vs. NT Shaun Rogers:
The parade of tough nose tackles in a 3-4 defensive scheme continues for a fifth straight week. Rogers is a bit of a different breed as he gets pressure on the quarterback (4 sacks) and gets tackles in the running game (2nd on the team with 47). Preston needs to shore up his game or step aside for the return of Melvin Fowler.

KT Leodis McKelvin vs. KT Josh Cribbs:
Either one of these guys can break a long one at anytime. If one of them does, his team's chances of winning a tight game increases considerably. Cribbs is third in the league in kick return average at 27.7. McKelvin has come on of late and is not far behind at 26.1.

CB Terrence McGee vs. WR Braylon Edwards:
McGee did a decent job against Moss last week and now he faces Edwards who has struggled this year. Edwards is playing better of late but is better at home than on the road. If McGee can shut him down it takes one of Quinn's main weapons away.

CB Reggie Corner vs. TE Kellen Winslow:
Quinn does have another big weapon in Winslow. The Bills would be wise to not put a linebacker on him, so Corner may get the job in the slot. Winslow can kill them if Edwards doesn't.



GAME PLAN

When The Bills Have The Ball: This may be the game that they really work hard to establish a ground game. Look for them to attack one of the worst run defenses in the league and bring the attitude needed to open up holes to get Lynch his first 100 yard game of the season.

When The Browns Have The Ball: The Browns want to see more of Quinn so look for him to do what teams have done against the Bills for over a month now, beat them with the short passing game. The Browns will likely flood the field with receivers running slant patterns to mix up a Bills defense that seems incapable of stopping or even slowing down that type of game.

BILLS DAILY PREDICTION

There is no real reason to see the Bills turning their season around quickly but the emotion of the home crowd on Monday night is not something to take lightly. They may be able to rattle Quinn making just his second NFL start and first on the road. For that reason alone I think the Bills will find a way to pull this game out but I'm not overly confident in this pick:
Bills 27, Browns 24

Season Prediction Record: (7-2)
Season Record Against The Spread: (7-2)

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