Week 12: Bills vs. Jaguars
The Bills travel to Jacksonville for their biggest game of the year. They are licking their wounds from the most lopsided loss in team history last week to New England. The Jaguars are smoking as they are on fire and are two games ahead of the Bills in the wild card race. If the Bills want to stay in the playoff race they will need to win this game.
FACTS AND FIGURES
||Buffalo (5-5) vs. Jacksonville (7-3)
||Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon
||Jaguars by 7½
||Bills lead 4-3 (Jaguars 1-0 in playoffs)
||Bills Won 1
||Bills 27-24 in Buffalo (2006)
||Rush (3rd); Pass (26th); overall (18th)
||Rush (14th); Pass (27th); overall (23rd)
||Rush (19th); Pass (30th); overall (31st)
||Rush (22nd); Pass (29th); overall (31st)
Marshawn Lynch missed the Patriots game with a sprained ankle and likely will miss this game as well. Otherwise besides the players that are on IR the Bills are fairly healthy. Matt Murphy, Kiwaukee Thomas, Derek Schouman, Peerless Price, Ko Simpson, Kevin Everett, Paul Pozluszny, Jason Whittle, and Jason Webster are among the long list on injured reserve.
The Jaguars will be without their leading tackler as Mike Peterson is out with a broken hand suffered in their win over San Diego on Sunday. DT Marcus Stroud is out, serving a four game suspension. WR John Broussard is unlikely to play with an ankle injury. CB Rashean Mathis is likely out as well with a groin injury.
Bills Daily Injury Page
LBs Angelo Crowell and John DiGiorgio vs. RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew:
The Jaguars have a nice version of "lightning and thunder" with their two quality backs. The Bills leading tacklers on defense will need to hold them in check for the Bills to win this game.
WR Lee Evans vs. CB Brian Williams:
With Mathis likely out Evans gets a break since he's their best corner. Williams will likely draw Evans and leads the team with three interceptions. The Bills number one receiver needs a big game to get the passing attack going but they have to watch to not turn the ball over.
QB J.P. Losman vs. FS Reggie Nelson:
Losman needs a big game to remain as the starter and the opportunity is there against a struggling pass defense. Nelson is someone who has made some big plays and Losman needs to watch out for him to avoid turnovers.
LT Jason Peters vs. DE Paul Spicer:
Peters will have his hands full against the Jaguars leading pass rusher. Spicer has five sacks on the year and if he puts pressure on Losman the Bills may have some trouble.
CB Terrence McGee vs. WR Dennis Northcutt:
McGee and the whole secondary need to rebound from last Sunday's debacle. Northcutt is the leading receiver for the Jaguars but hasn't had a phenomenal year. The defensive backs need to win the battle against a lackluster receiving corps.
DE Aaron Schobel vs. LT Khalif Barnes:
We've been saying it for a while now, Schobel needs to start earning that $50 Million contract he signed this summer. If he gets constant pressure on David Garrard then the Jaguars will become a one dimensional team and have to concentrate on the running game.
When The Bills Have The Ball: Look for them to attack the Jaguars weakness on defense which is the passing game especially with Lynch expected to be out again. Look for Losman to spread the field and throw the ball a lot especially with Mathis likely out for the Jags. That may open up lanes and loosen up the front seven for the running game to have some success.
When The Jaguars Have The Ball: The Jaguars are a running team with their two headed monster in the backfield. Look for them to pound it on the ground to wear out the Bills smallish front seven. They are not a big play team and will likely use the short passing game to keep the Bills defense honest.
BILLS DAILY PREDICTION
It really comes down to how much motivation the Bills have to erase the memory of last week's blowout loss. With Losman playing for his career look for him to have a big game. I think they will be highly motivated and the Jaguars may look past this game just enough (they have Indy next week) for the Bills to pull out an upset:
Bills 28, Jaguars 24
Season Prediction Record: (7-3)
Season Record Against The Spread: (6-4)
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