Week 12: Bills vs. Colts
at
Sunday, Nov. 25th
1:00pm ET
The Bills head to Indianapolis and have another must win game against the Colts. Buffalo needs the win against the current 5th place team in the AFC. If they lose this game they virtually have no chance to make the playoffs. A win gets them a step closer to getting back into the race.

FACTS AND FIGURES

Matchup: Buffalo (4-6) vs. Indianapolis (6-4)
Place: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV/Radio: Network: CBS; DirecTV: 709; Sirius: 93
Announcers: Marv Albert and Rich Gannon
Spread: Colts by 3
Series: Bills lead 35-30-1
Streak: Bills Won 1
Last Meeting: Bills 30-7 in Buffalo (2009)
Colts Offense: Rush (14th); Pass (8th); overall (4th)
Colts Defense: Rush (22nd); Pass (20th); overall (20th)
Bills Offense: Rush (7th); Pass (23rd); overall (16th)
Bills Defense: Rush (31st); Pass (18th); overall (27th)


INJURY UPDATE

The Bills will be without Aaron Williams and Mark Anderson again as they have been sidelined with knee injuries. Chris Kelsay and Fred Jackson should be back in action after missing last week's game with a neck injury and concussion respectively. Kyle Williams has an elbow injury that shouldn't curtail his play. Brad Smith has been battling a hamstring injury and Spencer Johnson has an ankle injury and other ailments but both of them should play.

The Colts may be without WR Donnie Avery who suffered a concussion in their loss to the Patriots last week. DL Cory Redding also left that game with a hip injury. TE Coby Fleener (shoulder), DB Vontae Davis (knee), DL Josh Chapman (knee) all missed the Pats game.

Check out our Bills Daily Injury Page throughout the week for the latest updates on the injured players.

KEY MATCHUPS

RT Leodis McKelvin vs. Colts Coverage Units:
On paper this is a huge advantage for the Bills. The Colts are 30th in punt coverage and allowed a score and almost allowed a second touchdown last week while McKelvin brought one to the house as well.

CB Stephon Gilmore vs. WR Reggie Wayne:
Gilmore is really coming into his own as he continues to improve as his rookie season progresses. Wayne is undergoing a resurgence as Andrew Luck's favorite receiver. He is already over 1,000 yards receiving for the season.

RT Chris Hairston vs. LBs Robert Mathis and Jerry Hughes:
Right tackle is the weak link on the Bills offensive line and Hairston draws Mathis who leads a very talented linebacker corps with six sacks. Hughes comes in on the second wave at the left outside linebacker position and he has four sacks.

RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller vs. LB Jerrell Freeman:
The Bills dynamic duo has to look out for Freeman who leads the Colts in tackles in his rookie season.

WR Stevie Johnson vs. CB Darius Butler:
Johnson goes up against a three year journeyman who has two interceptions returning one for a score in his first season in Indianapolis. Johnson is overdue for a breakout game, this could be the week against a below average pass coverage unit.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Third Down Stops: The Bills defense is ranked next to last in getting offenses off the field on third down. The Colts are 4th in third down efficiency. If the Bills can get stops on third down it will be much easier to pull off the upset.
2. Don't Bite On Play Actions: Luck is very good at the play action fake and the Bills linebackers have been susceptible to it this year. They need to play very disciplined defense and not bite on it or else the high powered Colts offense could have a lot of success.
3. Win The Turnover Battle: This is obviously very important every week but the Bills have a good chance to win the battle this week. The Colts have forced an NFL low six turnovers and are 30th in the league with a -13 turnover ratio. If the Bills can be a +2 or better they should win.

BILLS DAILY PREDICTION

This looks to be a real tough matchup. The Colts are the surprise of the NFL and are particularly tough at home where they have a 4-1 record. The Bills come in with some confidence and extra rest and practice time after their win last Thursday. This is also a game they must have and I think they will get it:
Bills 28, Colts 24

Season Prediction Record: (7-3)
Season Record Against The Spread: (5-5)

Bills Blitz - Coming Sunday Night!
Gameday Grades - Coming Sunday Night!
Gameday Homepage